Grocery Bills Climbed In June 2025, But Portland Egg Prices Dropped

If it feels like your wallet took a hit at the grocery store last month, you’re not imagining things. The overall inflation rate ticked up in June, and food prices were a key part of that story.

Nationally, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all items rose 0.3% in June, bringing the annual inflation rate to 2.7%. The index for food at home (groceries) also increased by 0.3% last month, finishing 2.4% higher than it was at the same point last year.

Some analysts suggest the increase may show early signs of the Trump administration's tariffs impacting consumer prices. One economist, Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon, told CBS News that "roughly one third of the monthly CPI advance in June can be attributed to a tariff-induced impulse."

Regionally, the picture was slightly different. In the 15-state West Region, which includes Oregon, Washington, and California, grocery prices rose a modest 0.1%, putting them up 3% over the past year. The primary drivers of the increase were beverages (up 1%), fruits and vegetables (up 0.9%), and other miscellaneous foods (up 0.6%).

It wasn’t all bad news on the grocery front. Nationally, several categories saw prices fall. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs fell 0.1%, dairy and related products decreased 0.3%, and cereals and bakery products dipped 0.2%. We can drill down even further on that egg price data locally.

This trend of falling egg prices is clearly visible in Portland. Stumptown Savings has tracked over 530 egg prices across the metro region since mid-April. This robust dataset, which feeds the Portland Egg Price Tracker, provides a unique view into this volatile grocery category.

Nationally, the index for eggs saw a steep 7.4% drop in June. Local data reflects this almost perfectly, showing the average price per egg in Portland-area stores dropped from $0.51 in May to $0.47 in June — a 7.8% decrease. 

For example, a 24-pack of Kirkland Signature free-range eggs cost $6.79 in May but fell to $5.29 a month later. A dozen New Seasons brand cage-free eggs fell from $4.99 to $3.99 over the same period. This is a huge shift from earlier this year when prices hit all-time highs.

While organic and pasture-raised eggs remain the most expensive, Stumptown Savings’ data shows that even premium brands like Vital Farms and Happy Egg Co. have seen some decreases, though often less pronounced than store brands.

While grocery price inflation was moderate in June, several factors could drive prices higher in the coming months. The Trump administration recently unveiled a 17% tariff on Mexican tomatoes — a significant move considering Mexico produces around 70% of the tomatoes Americans buy. A potential 30% tariff on many European imports could also lead to price increases on items like pasta, wine, cheese, and olive oil.

Beyond tariffs, the agricultural sector faces other headwinds. 

In Oregon, cherry farmers are reporting a severe labor shortage, driven largely by the Trump administration’s immigration policies. Across the country, extreme weather, including floods and heat waves, poses major threats to numerous crops.

Navigating the grocery aisle in the second half of 2025 will be a mixed bag. The sharp drop in egg prices shows how quickly supply chain recoveries can bring relief to one part of the store. However, persistent issues like tight cattle supplies mean beef prices are likely to remain high.

The biggest wild cards remain policy and weather. Shoppers may want to watch for sales on poultry and pork, as prices for these proteins are forecast to rise much more slowly than beef. For pantry items like olive oil, pasta, and canned tomatoes, the threat of new tariffs could mean that current prices are the lowest you'll see for a while.

The bottom line: While the sticker shock of the last few years has eased, targeted price spikes for specific items will likely continue to be the norm. Subscribing to Stumptown Savings helps you keep up on the latest local grocery deals to help stretch your dollar further. 

This article was written with AI assistance to help analyze data and identify trends.

Happy saving!

Bryan M. Vance,
Founder/Publisher,
Stumptown Savings